H5N1 is a virus concerning many scientists as the mortality rate in humans is a terrifying 60 per cent – seasonal flu kills about 0.1 per cent of those infected.
Globally, more than 15,000 outbreaks of infection with H5N1 were reported in domestic birds such as chickens, ducks, turkeys and geese between 2005 and 2018. Most cases of infection in humans have involved individuals handling, slaughtering or consuming infected poultry and as of December 2006, more than 240 million poultry either died or were slaughtered to prevent the spread of this virus.
Since 2003, nearly 900 people have been infected with the H5N1 avian influenza viruses in 18 countries and over 450 of them have died, with fatalities in Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Thailand and Canada. These numbers might seem low, compared with other pandemics, however, if the virus changes to become more easily spread between humans, we could be facing a deadly pandemic the likes of which we have never seen before.
Highly pathogenic versions of H5N1 have now spread from Asia to Europe and Africa, resulting in millions of poultry infections. Strains of the virus can become more deadly when they mutate in factory farms. These can then pass back to wild birds. Migrating waterfowl – wild birds, including shorebirds and gulls, as well as domestic ducks are considered to be the natural reservoir of the virus and may then spread the more deadly strains around the world. These animals may carry and shed viruses without showing any signs of illness – they become ‘silent carriers’, sustaining and perpetuating H5N1 and transmitting it to other susceptible hosts.
The global spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 in birds is considered a significant pandemic threat. If the virus mutates to become more easily transmissible, David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organisation, says the “range of deaths could be anything between five and 150 million”.
So far, it spreads mainly from poultry to people with just a very small handful of person-to-person cases. However, influenza viruses constantly undergo genetic changes, it would be an extremely serious cause for concern, if the H5N1 virus become more easily transmissible among humans.
H7N9 is another virus with pandemic potential. First detected in poultry in China in 2013, the number of human cases has exceeded 1,500 and over 600 people have died. Most H7N9 infections in people result from contact with infected poultry, especially in markets where live birds have been sold, or by having contact with places where infected poultry have been kept or slaughtered. Again, infections don’t cause severe disease in poultry, so the virus can spread silently and is now ubiquitous in Chinese poultry. Like H5N1, a small number of cases may have spread from person-to-person but generally H7N9 doesn’t spread easily between people. Virologist Professor Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin said: “If H7N9 viruses acquire the ability to transmit efficiently from person to person, a worldwide outbreak is almost certain…”.
These are just two of many bird flu viruses of concern, there are many others! In 2018, a new influenza virus, H7N4, emerged when it was detected in a 68-year-old woman hospitalised in Jiangsu province in eastern China. She had been handling live poultry. This was the first recorded case of this virus infecting a human showing how unpredictable viral evolution in livestock can be.
Bird flu has gone from being a relatively rare occurrence to one that crops up frequently and the UK has not escaped. In November 2014, a low-severity H5N8 virus was confirmed at a farm in Yorkshire; then in February 2015, a low-severity H7N7 virus was found at a farm in Hampshire. In 2015, a highly-pathogenic H5N1 strain was identified at a chicken farm in the Dordogne in France and it was subsequently found in a number of other farms in south-western France.
In the winter of 2021 to 2022, the UK experienced its biggest ever outbreak of bird flu with over 118 cases of highly pathogenic H5N1 being confirmed in premises from one end of the country to the other but with clusters seen in areas where there is a high density of poultry farming. It seems that it just won’t go away!
As we have seen with Covid-19, when a new infectious virus emerges, it’s not just people going to wet markets that die – it’s office workers in New York, engineers in Zimbabwe, commuters in London, shopkeepers in Italy and students in Madrid. They are joined by people in every city, town and village around the world, dying after shaking someone’s hand, touching their face or simply breathing in, in the wrong place at the wrong time. One way to take control of the situation would be for huge numbers of people to stop eating poultry, pigs and other animals and remove the viral reservoir of factory farms. It’s time to end factory farming before it ends us.
For more information see bird flu.